对于经营新西兰与中国之间进出口、批发零售、物流、食品、教育服务及跨境投资的贸易商而言，评估一个政党不能只看它是否主张减税、削减政府开支，还要看它的政策能否维护市场准入、供应链稳定、商业信心和中新经贸关系。

新西兰2026年大选定于11月7日举行。行动党于10月26日公布了竞选纲领，强调减轻生活成本、削减监管、控制政府债务和改革移民制度。

从中新贸易商的商业利益出发，有三个值得重点审视的问题。

三大需要审视的理由

一、对华经贸关系与市场稳定：政治风险会传导到生意

核心问题：贸易商需要稳定的市场环境，而不仅仅是政治立场。

中国是新西兰重要的贸易伙伴。对于依赖中国供应商、客户、物流渠道及跨境投资的企业而言，双边关系的稳定性会影响订单、市场拓展和长期商业决策。

行动党强调更严格的移民政策，并主张对临时工作签证收取附加费。 这些措施并不等于直接限制对华贸易，但贸易商仍应审视行动党的对外政策是否有助于维持务实、稳定的经贸环境，以及是否可能增加跨境商务人员往来的成本。

贸易商应追问： 行动党是否有明确、可执行的对华贸易促进方案？它如何在国家安全考量与正常商业合作之间保持平衡？

二、减税与削减监管，不一定能解决小企业的经营困境

核心问题：降低经营成本，不能只看政府规模和税率。

行动党2026年纲领强调削减监管、控制政府支出及减少债务，并提出取消 KiwiSaver 投资收益税等措施。

这些政策可能对部分企业和投资者有利，但对中小型中新贸易商而言，真正的压力还包括：

• 港口、海运、仓储及商业租金成本；
• 汇率波动、融资成本和客户拖欠货款；
• 海关合规、食品进口标准及产品认证；
• 小企业获得融资、政府采购和商业支持的机会。

关键不在于反对减税，而在于追问减税的实际受益者是谁。 如果企业最沉重的支出并未下降，单纯削减监管或公共开支，未必能显著改善现金流和盈利能力。

三、移民与人才政策：跨境经营需要人员流动和专业人才

核心问题：贸易不仅是货物进出，还包括人员、技术和服务。

行动党提出的移民政策包括对临时工作签证收取附加费，以及对部分新居民设置五年领取政府福利的等待期。

相关措施的直接影响因企业类型和签证类别而异，不能一概而论。但对于需要中国供应商来新西兰考察、派遣技术人员、培训员工、开展商务谈判或拓展服务业务的企业，签证成本、办理效率和人员流动规则都值得关注。

如果政策增加专业人才调动成本，或令部分跨境商务安排更复杂，企业就需要承担额外的时间与合规成本。

贸易商应追问： 政府能否在防止移民制度被滥用的同时，保障合法商务访问、技术交流和专业人才流动？

投票前，建议比较哪些具体指标？

评估指标 对中新贸易商的实际意义 对华贸易与外交 市场准入、双边经贸沟通及政策可预测性 中小企业支持 融资、现金流、税务与合规成本 商务签证与人才 派遣技术人员、供应商访问及服务合同履行 政府财政与公共服务 交通、港口配套、培训及商业基础设施

需要公平指出，行动党主张削减监管本身可能给部分企业带来好处；上述三点是值得检验的风险与政策缺口，并不意味着这些负面影响必然发生。不同政党的政策也需要按照相同标准比较。

归根结底， 对中新贸易商而言，判断一个政党是否符合自身商业利益，不能只问它是否主张小政府、减税或严格移民政策，还应看它能否提供稳定的国际经贸环境、切实降低中小企业经营成本，并让合法跨境商业活动顺畅开展。最终应根据企业自身的出口、进口、服务贸易和用工结构，评估各项政策的实际影响。

New Zealand’s 2026 Election: Three Reasons Why China–New Zealand Traders Should Scrutinise ACT’s Policies

From the perspective of businesses engaged in trade between New Zealand and China, the question of which party best serves their interests should not be reduced to tax cuts, deregulation or the size of government. Market access, supply-chain resilience, commercial confidence and the stability of bilateral economic relations are equally important.

New Zealand’s 2026 general election is scheduled for 7 November. ACT’s campaign emphasises reducing the cost of living, cutting red tape, controlling government debt and reforming immigration policy.

For importers, exporters, wholesalers, retailers, logistics operators, food businesses, education providers and cross-border investors, three areas warrant particular scrutiny.

1. China–New Zealand Economic Relations: Political Risk Can Have Commercial Consequences

The central concern: businesses need a stable trading environment, not merely political rhetoric.

China is an important trading partner for New Zealand. Businesses that rely on Chinese suppliers, customers, logistics networks and cross-border investment depend on predictable economic relations to support orders, market development and long-term commercial planning.

ACT advocates a stricter approach to immigration and has proposed additional charges for certain temporary work visas. These measures do not, in themselves, amount to restrictions on trade with China. Nevertheless, traders should consider whether ACT’s broader approach to international engagement would support stable, pragmatic economic relations, and whether its policies could increase the costs associated with cross-border business activity.

The questions traders should ask are straightforward: Does ACT offer a clear and practical strategy for promoting trade with China? How would it balance national security considerations with legitimate commercial cooperation?

2. Tax Cuts and Deregulation Will Not Necessarily Resolve the Pressures Facing Small Businesses

The central concern: reducing business costs requires more than lowering taxes or shrinking the state.

ACT’s 2026 platform emphasises deregulation, tighter control of public spending and government debt, and changes to the taxation of investment returns, including a proposal to abolish tax on KiwiSaver investment gains.

Such policies may benefit certain businesses and investors. However, small and medium-sized enterprises trading between New Zealand and China face a broader range of commercial pressures, including:

• Port charges, shipping, warehousing and commercial rents.
• Exchange-rate volatility, borrowing costs and late payments from customers.
• Customs compliance, food-import standards and product certification.
• Access to finance, government procurement opportunities and business support.

The issue is not whether tax cuts are desirable in principle, but who actually benefits from them.

If a business’s largest expenses remain unchanged, reducing regulation or public expenditure may do little to improve its cash flow or profitability. Traders should therefore assess the practical effects of ACT’s proposals on their own operating costs, rather than assuming that a smaller government will automatically produce a more favourable business environment.

3. Immigration and Skills Policy: International Trade Depends on People as Well as Goods

The central concern: cross-border commerce requires the movement of people, expertise and services.

ACT has proposed immigration measures that include additional charges for certain temporary work visas and a five-year waiting period before some new residents can access government welfare support.

The direct effects would vary according to the type of business, the visa category and the individuals concerned. Nevertheless, companies that depend on visits from Chinese suppliers, technical specialists, trainers and business representatives need to pay close attention to visa costs, processing efficiency and the rules governing the movement of personnel.

If policy changes increase the cost of transferring skilled staff or complicate legitimate business visits, companies may face additional administrative burdens, delays and compliance costs.

The question for traders is this: Can the Government prevent abuse of the immigration system while ensuring that legitimate business travel, technical exchanges and the movement of skilled professionals remain practical and efficient?

What Should Traders Compare Before Voting?

Policy area Why it matters to China–New Zealand traders Trade and diplomatic relations with China Market access, bilateral commercial dialogue and policy predictability Support for small and medium-sized enterprises Access to finance, cash flow, taxation and compliance costs Business visas and skilled workers Technical assignments, supplier visits and the fulfilment of service contracts Public finances and infrastructure Transport links, port infrastructure, workforce training and business facilities

It is important to acknowledge that ACT’s proposals to reduce regulation could benefit some businesses. The concerns outlined above identify potential risks and questions requiring scrutiny; they should not be interpreted as evidence that adverse outcomes are inevitable. The policies of other parties should be assessed against the same criteria.

Conclusion

For businesses trading between New Zealand and China, the decision is not simply about whether a party promises lower taxes, a smaller state or stricter immigration controls. It is also about whether its policies can sustain a predictable international trading environment, meaningfully reduce the operating costs faced by smaller enterprises, and facilitate legitimate cross-border commercial activity.

Ultimately, traders should assess each party’s proposals against the realities of their own businesses, including their exposure to imports, exports, services, staffing requirements and international supply chains. The objective should be to determine which policies are most likely to support long-term commercial stability, sustainable growth and New Zealand’s economic interests.