新西兰最新失业率升至5.6%。这个数字虽然还没有达到疫情期间的水平，但已经足以引起警惕。

更值得关注的是，这一次就业市场面对的并不只是传统的经济周期问题。

经济放缓，企业减少招聘，失业率上升，这些现象过去都曾经出现过。只要经济恢复，企业重新投资，就业市场通常也会慢慢改善。

但现在多了一个过去没有这么明显的因素——人工智能。

越来越多企业开始使用AI处理行政、客服、数据分析、内容制作以及一些过去需要初级员工完成的工作。对于已经有经验的专业人士来说，AI可能只是提高工作效率的工具；但对于刚刚毕业、没有工作经验的年轻人来说，情况就不一样了。

他们面对的可能是一个越来越尴尬的现实：企业需要的是有经验的人，而过去用来积累经验的入门级岗位却正在减少。

这才是目前最值得政府认真面对的问题。

过去，一个大学生毕业以后，哪怕没有太多工作经验，也可以先找到一份初级工作，从行政、销售、市场、IT或者其他岗位开始做起。工资可能不高，但至少有机会进入职场。

工作一年、两年以后，有了经验，再换更好的工作。

这个过程看起来普通，却是年轻人建立职业生涯最重要的一步。

如果这一层机会越来越少，年轻人就会遇到一个很现实的问题：没有经验，所以找不到工作；找不到工作，又永远没有机会获得经验。

这已经不单纯是一个年轻人的个人问题，而是政府必须面对的就业政策问题。

当然，没有人要求政府阻止企业使用AI，也没有人认为政府能够保证每一个大学毕业生都有工作。

AI的发展是挡不住的，新西兰也不应该因为担心失业而拒绝新技术。恰恰相反，如果其他国家的企业大量使用AI提高生产率，而新西兰企业因为各种原因迟迟不愿意转型，新西兰的竞争力只会进一步下降。

问题在于，技术进步不能成为政府袖手旁观的理由。

政府应该做的是帮助年轻人适应这种变化，帮助企业培训员工，推动职业教育和大学教育调整课程，同时创造更多实习、graduate programme和apprenticeship机会，让没有经验的年轻人仍然能够进入职场。

遗憾的是，到目前为止，我们看到的更多还是政府强调控制支出、减少浪费、等待经济恢复，却没有看到一项足够有力度、足够清晰的全国性青年就业和AI就业转型计划。

这也是为什么我们认为，现任联合政府不能简单把5.6%的失业率归结为经济周期，然后等待情况自然好转。

经济当然有周期。

但政府的工作就是在经济不好的时候想办法推动经济，在就业市场发生变化的时候提前准备，而不是等问题过去以后再解释为什么当时没有办法。

尤其值得警惕的是，失业率背后还有一个新西兰长期没有解决的问题——生产率。

新西兰工资为什么很难持续提高？企业为什么不愿意大量投资？为什么很多年轻人最终选择到澳大利亚或者其他国家寻找机会？

这些问题表面上各不相同，实际上都与新西兰长期偏低的生产率和经济增长能力有关。

AI本来可能是新西兰提高生产率的一次机会。

但是，如果政府没有推动企业采用新技术，没有帮助劳动者获得新的技能，也没有解决教育和就业之间的脱节，那么AI最后可能只是让一部分企业减少用人，而没有真正带来新产业、新投资和新的高薪工作。

这才是最值得担心的情况。

我们不应该把今天的5.6%看成一个孤立的数字。

对于一个刚刚大学毕业的年轻人来说，失业半年、一年，影响的不只是这一段时间没有工资。他可能因此错过职业发展的起点，失去工作经验，也可能最终选择离开新西兰。

对于新西兰这样一个人口不大的国家来说，如果越来越多年轻人觉得这里没有足够的职业机会，最后离开的恰恰可能是最有学历、最有能力、最有发展潜力的一批人。

这绝不是一个小问题。

所以，我们并不是要求联合政府为失业率承担全部责任，也不是说政府可以创造每一个就业岗位。

我们真正希望看到的是，政府对这个趋势有一个明确的回答。

面对5.6%的失业率，怎么帮助年轻人就业？

面对AI，怎么保证年轻人还有进入职场的机会？

面对生产率长期偏低，政府准备怎样吸引投资、鼓励企业扩大生产？

如果这些问题都只能回答“经济会逐渐恢复”，那么这样的答案显然不够。

因为经济恢复需要时间，而年轻人的职业生涯没有那么多时间可以等待。

联合政府上台时提出了恢复经济、减少政府浪费、让新西兰重新增长等目标。现在经济确实到了一个需要政府拿出更多办法的时候。

削减开支固然重要，但削减本身不是经济增长。

等待利率下降也不是经济政策。

政府最终还是需要回答一个最基本的问题：

新西兰下一轮经济增长靠什么？新西兰年轻人的下一份工作在哪里？

如果连这两个问题都没有清晰答案，那么失业率5.6%恐怕只是一个警告，而不是问题的终点。

联合政府现在最需要做的，不是继续等待经济自己恢复，而是主动创造恢复的条件。

否则，等到经济真的恢复时，我们可能才发现，很多年轻人的机会已经错过了。

New Zealand’s 5.6% unemployment rate is a warning the Government cannot ignore.
As AI threatens the traditional first rung of the career ladder, waiting for the economy to recover is no longer an adequate policy.”

New Zealand’s unemployment rate has risen to 5.6 per cent. While that remains well below the levels seen during the pandemic, it is high enough to warrant serious attention.

More importantly, the labour market is now facing a challenge that cannot be explained simply by the economic cycle.

When the economy slows, businesses recruit less and unemployment rises. That has happened before. In time, if growth returns and investment picks up, employment normally follows.

But this time there is another force at work: artificial intelligence.

An increasing number of businesses are using AI to perform administrative tasks, customer service, data analysis, content production and other forms of work that were once carried out by junior employees. For experienced professionals, AI may simply be another tool for improving productivity. For young people with little or no work experience, however, the implications are rather different.

They may be entering a labour market in which employers want experience, while the entry-level jobs through which that experience was traditionally acquired are becoming harder to find.

That is the issue the Government should be addressing now.

No one seriously expects the Government to prevent businesses from adopting AI. Nor should it. New Zealand cannot afford to resist technologies that are transforming economies elsewhere. If businesses in Australia, Britain, the United States and elsewhere use AI to raise productivity while New Zealand falls behind, the country’s competitive position will only weaken.

The question is not whether AI should be used. It is whether New Zealand is prepared for what its adoption means for workers.

That requires more than simply allowing the market to take its course.

The Government should be helping young people acquire the skills they will need in an AI-driven economy. It should be encouraging businesses to train workers, expanding opportunities for internships and graduate programmes, and ensuring that vocational education and university courses remain connected to the realities of the labour market.

Yet so far, the response has appeared considerably less ambitious.

The Coalition Government has understandably placed considerable emphasis on controlling public expenditure, reducing waste and restoring fiscal discipline. Those objectives have their merits. But they cannot, by themselves, constitute an economic strategy.

Cutting expenditure is not the same thing as generating growth.

Waiting for interest rates to fall is not an employment policy.

And hoping that the economic cycle will eventually turn is not a substitute for preparing the country for structural change.

The problem becomes even more serious when unemployment is considered alongside New Zealand’s long-standing productivity weakness.

Why have wages struggled to rise sustainably? Why has business investment remained comparatively weak? Why do so many talented young New Zealanders eventually look overseas for better opportunities?

These questions are connected.

AI could provide New Zealand with an opportunity to lift productivity. But if the Government does not help businesses adopt new technologies, equip workers with new skills and address the persistent gap between education and employment, AI could instead result in fewer entry-level jobs without generating enough new opportunities elsewhere.

That would be the worst of both worlds.

The figure of 5.6 per cent should therefore not be treated as an isolated statistic.

For a recent university graduate, six or twelve months without work is not simply a period without a salary. It can mean lost experience, weaker professional networks and a delayed start to a career.

For a small country such as New Zealand, there is an additional danger. If young, highly educated people conclude that the country offers too few opportunities, some will leave — and those who leave may be precisely the people New Zealand can least afford to lose.

This is why the Coalition Government should not be blamed for every job lost in a slowing economy. Governments cannot control every aspect of the labour market, nor can they create every job.

But they can create the conditions in which businesses invest, expand and employ.

And they can prepare the workforce for changes that are already underway.

The Government therefore needs to answer some straightforward questions.

How will it help young people find their first job?

How will it ensure that AI increases productivity without closing the traditional entry points into employment?

And what is its strategy for addressing New Zealand’s chronic productivity problem and attracting the investment needed to create better-paid, higher-skilled jobs?

If the answer to all three questions is simply that the economy will gradually recover, that is not enough.

Economic recovery takes time. Young people do not have unlimited time to wait for the beginning of their careers.

The Coalition Government came to office promising to restore economic growth, reduce waste and put New Zealand on a stronger footing. It is now time for that promise to be tested against the realities of the labour market.

New Zealand needs more than fiscal restraint. It needs a credible strategy for growth, productivity, investment and employment.

The most important question is a simple one:

What will drive New Zealand’s next phase of economic growth — and where will the next generation find its first job?

If the Government does not have convincing answers, then 5.6 per cent unemployment may prove to be less a measure of where New Zealand is than a warning of where it could be heading.

The Coalition Government cannot simply wait for the economy to recover by itself.

It must create the conditions for recovery to happen.